THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR’S IMPACT ON EU GENDER AND ECONOMIC SECURITY

The Russia–Ukraine war has reshaped Europe’s social and economic landscape, not only through conflict but also through the large-scale movement of people. Millions of Ukrainians now live under temporary protection in the EU, adding new layers to debates about ageing populations and economic security. While much attention focuses on geopolitical and financial impacts, the quieter demographic shifts are equally significant. An ageing population can weaken labor supply, slow growth, and strain welfare budgets, so even small demographic changes matter. Many of those displaced are women and children, subtly shifting the age structure in ways that ease Europe’s ageing trend and bring more balance between working-age people and dependents.

Table 1 shows ranges for two core demographic indicators used to gauge how stable or fragile the EU’s economic security is from a population perspective. The share of elderly people (65+) highlights how an ageing population can become a burden if the proportion grows too large or too small. Very low shares (under 11%) or very high shares (over 25%) fall into the “Absolute danger” zone, while the most balanced and sustainable range sits between 18% and 20%. The age dependency ratio shows how many children and older people depend on the working-age population. If too many or too few rely on those in work, economic pressure grows and pension systems come under strain. The safest zone for this indicator remains between 45 and 50.

Table 1

Modified demographic security indicators for assessing EU economic resilience

Source: elaborated by the author based on [7]

Three years into the full-scale invasion, millions of Ukrainians remain under temporary protection across the EU. Looking closer at Table 2, the data breaks down how this refugee population is structured by age and sex as of the end of April 2025. Around 40% are male and 60% are female. The majority (just over 70%) are working-age adults between 14 and 64, nearly two-thirds of whom are women. This reflects the reality that many men of military age stayed in Ukraine due to conscription, while women and children make up most of those who fled. Children aged 0–13 account for nearly a quarter of the total, adding pressure to EU education, childcare, and health systems. The elderly (65+) make up just over 6%, but even this smaller share has implications for host countries’ care and welfare planning.

Table 2

Age and sex structure of Ukrainian refugees under Temporary Protection in the EU

Source: elaborated by the author based on [6]

As shown in Table 3, the presence of Ukrainian refugees is subtly reshaping the EU’s demographic balance. Although refugees make up just under 1% of the total EU population, their age and household profile provide clear benefits for countering Europe’s ageing trend. With refugees included, the share of elderly people drops slightly from 21.6% to 21.45%. The age dependency ratio also shifts modestly downward, from 56.74% to 56.59%, meaning fewer dependents per working-age person – a positive sign for the sustainability of pension systems and social care.

Table 3

Impact of Ukrainian refugees on EU demographic indicators and population structure

Source: elaborated by the author based on [2-5]

While these shifts are not yet large enough to move the EU fully into a safer demographic zone (the share of the elderly still sits in the “unsatisfactory” range and the age dependency ratio remains in the “absolute danger” zone), the arrival of Ukrainian refugees nudges both indicators in a healthier direction.

This stabilizing effect is strongest in countries with the largest refugee communities, such as Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. There, the additional working-age adults and children help counter local labor shortages and support the sustainability of social systems. About 1.5% of the EU’s total child population now consists of Ukrainian children, showing how refugee families are directly rebalancing age structures.

Furthermore, this tendency is likely to continue beyond the end of the war. In a survey conducted in December 2024, only about 20% of Ukrainian refugees confirmed they would definitely return 
home [1], and as the conflict persists, this share is expected to decline further. Many will likely remain, continuing to support the EU’s demographic resilience. This is especially relevant for elderly women, as the ratio of females to males in the 65+ group is around 1.33 to 1 [4]. Women generally live longer and rely more on pensions and health services in old age, so the presence of more working-age refugees helps maintain the resources needed to support them.

Taken together, while the EU’s demographic security challenges remain, the continued presence of Ukrainian refugees has real potential to ease population ageing and reinforce local labor markets adding practical stability alongside vital humanitarian protection.

The findings show that Ukrainian refugees are having a modest yet real impact in easing the EU’s demographic vulnerabilities during the ongoing war. While the overall levels of economic security for both the share of the elderly and the age dependency ratio remain in the “unsatisfactory” and “absolute danger” zones, the presence of refugees has nudged these figures closer to healthier levels. This stabilizing effect is strongest in countries hosting the largest numbers of displaced Ukrainians, such as Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic, where local pension systems and labor markets have long felt demographic pressure. Given that only a small share of refugees plans definite return and that many may stay in the EU for years to come, this demographic boost is likely to persist. If integration policies stay effective, the Ukrainian refugee population will help balance Europe’s age structure and strengthen resilience against future demographic and economic challenges, an evolving trend that deserves continued attention and thoughtful policy planning.

1. Centre for Economic Strategy (2025). Ukrainian refugees after three years abroad: Fourth wave of research [Research report], [Online], available at: https://ces.org.ua/en/refugees-fourth-wave/ (Accessed 12 June 2025).

2. Eurostat (2025). Ageing Europe – statistics on population developments, [Online], available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Ageing_Europe_-_statistics_on_population_development (Accessed 12 June 2025).

3. Eurostat (2025). Population on 1 January by age and sex, [Online], available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_pjan/default/table?lang=en (Accessed 12 June 2025).

4. Eurostat (2025). Population structure and ageing. Statistics Explained, [Online], available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_structure_and_ageing (Accessed 12 June 2025).

5. Eurostat (2025). Population structure indicators at national level, [Online], available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_pjanind/default/table?lang=en (Accessed 12 June 2025).

6. Eurostat (2025). Temporary protection for persons fleeing Ukraine – monthly statistics, [Online], available at:  https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Temporary_protection_for_persons_fleeing_Ukraine_-_monthly_statistics (Accessed 12 June 2025).

7. Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine (2013, October 29). On approval of methodological recommendations for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine (Order No. 1277), [Online], available at: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v1277731-13#Text (Accessed 12 June 2025).