DIASPORA OR RETURNEES? TWO PATHS, ONE MISSION FOR UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN GERMANY
INTRODUCTION
The question of whether Ukrainians forced to flee Russia's aggression will return home weighs heavily on policymakers, scholars, and all those concerned with Ukraine's future. Each day of war not only claims lives but displaces entire generations, erodes demographics, and threatens postwar recovery. Even before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine was losing human capital through migration and aging. According to UN data, over 6 million Ukrainians lived abroad by 2020. After February 24, 2022, forced displacement reached catastrophic proportions—6.9 million refugees fled, with more than 1.2 million finding shelter in Germany (UNHCR 2025).
Most alarming is the exodus of Ukraine's most vital citizens: youth, children, and highly educated professionals—precisely those whose hands, minds, and energy are needed for reconstruction. But do they envision themselves in a future Ukraine? Ongoing combat, constant shelling, and uncertainty deter potential returnees, while successful integration abroad increases the likelihood that many may never return.
Yet the war has proven that connection to homeland transcends borders. Ukrainians abroad support their nation through military aid, volunteering, and economic remittances. Many, even while establishing themselves overseas, remain ready to participate in rebuilding—either remotely or through eventual return. The challenge for Ukraine and its partners is to create conditions enabling both possibilities.
SHIFTING INTENTIONS: FROM RETURN TO INTEGRATION
For over three years, the author has researched how globally dispersed Ukrainians preserve their identity, support their country, and balance integration abroad with readiness to return. The longitudinal study, initiated in spring 2022 in Munich, continued in Frankfurt (Oder)-Berlin in 2024, and is currently underway in Regensburg. It examines changes in Ukrainian refugees' intentions—to stay or return—along with their transformative experiences of displacement, adaptation, and transnational engagement since the invasion. Combining qualitative interviews with online surveys, it identifies three groups: potential returnees, those intending to stay, and the undecided. By mid-2023, each group comprised roughly one-third of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, but the balance has since shifted against return. Quantitative data shows that the percentage expecting to return (either soon or later) decreased from 49% to 25% over nearly two years, while those deciding against return rose from 21% to 48%. The undecided remained relatively stable (see Figure 1).
Qualitative longitudinal data reveals these changes occurred primarily among those initially planning to return—some followed through, while others postponed or changed their plans, often while actively working to establish themselves in Germany.
The typology of adaptation models developed from qualitative data shows each group—stayers, returners, and undecided—is characterized by at least two distinct adaptation approaches differing in integration potential (Panchenko 2022; Chargaziia & Panchenko 2025). Behavioral patterns indicate that intention to stay in Germany doesn't always correlate with high integration potential, just as plans to return don't necessarily indicate weak integration motivation. Among potential repatriates, there are those who passively wait to return home, not trying to integrate in the host country. Others, conversely, are highly active, seeking to make the most of their time in Germany for personal development. They learn the language, build social networks, and gain professional experience to apply in reconstruction of Ukraine. Those who have already returned are mostly from this active group, while few of the passive expectants eventually returned. Additionally, there was no evidence that those who were undecided or intending to stay had returned home. Data from quantitative panel studies also confirmed that initial return intentions strongly predict actual return (Adema et al. 2024).
RETURN AS CIVIC ENGAGEMENT
Those who have returned to Ukraine have rejoined their families, work, and social life while actively supporting the army through donations and volunteering, demonstrating resilience. They view their return as a contribution to Ukraine's European future. A 37-year-old woman from Kyiv who fled to Germany in March 2022 with her 8-year-old daughter (having previously fled Donetsk for Kyiv in 2014 with her newborn) said on the eve of her return:
"My return to Ukraine is also a contribution. It has a more positive impact on our morale and economy." (Munich, March 2023).
After more than a year back in Ukraine, she reflected:
"Finally, staying here and making this country alive is also a good mission." (Kyiv (on-line), November 2024).
Another 30-year-old woman from Kyiv, who has postponed her return, stated:
"Only the proactive people will return. It is good that they will bring themselves..." (Venna (on-line), November 2024).
Returners also see their mission as ensuring survival and caring for themselves and their families.
"Our task is to survive..." (Kharkiv (on-line), November 2024).
"My mission is to take care of myself, my child, my family—to ensure we are healthy and have both plan A and plan B for various foreseeable situations..." (Kyiv (on-line), November 2024).
TRANSNATIONALISM AS DIASPORA MISSION
Those who stay are increasingly investing in integration into the host country while engaging in transnational activities, whether through financial aid, cultural heritage preservation, or advocacy. Meanwhile, initial repatriation plans are often postponed due to uncertainty or revised in favor of staying. Those who initially considered staying have become more confident in their intentions, and their adaptation paths have grown more diverse. Some have successfully integrated into the labor market or at least see concrete ways to do so. Others have found that integration has actually strengthened their Ukrainian identity. A 31-year-old woman from Vinnytsia who found a job in Germany in her profession said:
"I remain Ukrainian. Although I thought that the more I adapted here, the further I would separate from Ukraine and put down roots here, in practice the opposite happened. For my mental and psychological health, especially over the past year, I feel the need to stay connected to my roots, to my people..." (Ebersberg, May 2025).
She described how, after participating in a procession to mark the Day of Ukrainian Vyshyvanka (national clothing), she met a singer from a Ukrainian choir, passed an audition, and now sings in the choir, participates in various concerts, and introduces Ukrainian culture to the local population. Even before that, she felt an inner need to create a community for Ukrainian women in her area:
"I felt a deep loneliness inside. I realized I wasn't alone—there are thousands of women here, each sitting alone in their apartments. So I decided to find and unite them." (Ebersberg, May 2025).
Ukrainians in Germany interact with the host society and transnational networks in different ways. Their perceptions of contributions from abroad vary—some focus on financial or informational support, others on preserving Ukrainian identity, and some on shaping a positive image of Ukraine. Donations were the most frequently mentioned form of support in the interviews, with some describing it as the only way to help from abroad. Volunteering was also commonly mentioned, especially in early 2022 interviews when providing housing for displaced people in Ukraine was prevalent. Later interviews revealed other forms of engagement, such as participation in pro-Ukrainian demonstrations and professional support. A 35-year-old psychologist from Kyiv noted:
"I see my mission in my profession—stabilizing and supporting people's psychological health. Showing them how to find resources within themselves, not just in the outside world. That's why I focus on working with Ukrainians in Ukrainian." (Munich, January 2024).
Ukrainian refugees abroad recognize that maintaining moral support for those who remained in Ukraine is as crucial as material aid. As 30-year-old women from Vinnytsia emphasized:
"Remaining kind to those who stayed is our mission. I don't want us to be seen as embittered victims. I want the world to know Ukrainians as bright, ambitious, talented, and resilient people—good specialists, good parents, a nation valuable to the world." (Ebersberg, January 2024).
This perspective highlights how diaspora communities provide both practical assistance and emotional solidarity while countering narratives of victimization.
IDENTITY AS RESISTANCE AND CULTURE DIPLOMACY ABROAD
Interviewees also emphasized preserving Ukrainian identity and shaping Ukraine's image. Respondents who remained in Germany and returned to Ukraine spoke of the need to preserve the Ukrainian language and traditions and pass them on to their children, presenting Ukrainian identity as resistance. A 48-year-old woman who returned with her 13-year-old daughter to front-line Kharkiv explained:
"Carrying Ukrainian identity means resisting pressures to switch to Russian. When I switched to Ukrainian, everything fell into place for me. Before that, it was somehow not like that: I am Ukrainian by nature, I love Ukraine, but there was no such stable attitude. And now I feel... You just need to have a stable position, everywhere here and abroad. I don’t communicate in Russian anywhere at all. …. This is my struggle."
(Kharkiv (on-line), November 2024).
Ukrainians abroad consciously work to shape a positive image of their country. As 38-year-old women from Kharkiv noted:
"What can you do for Ukraine in Germany or any other country? Show yourself. Demonstrate that we are competent, impressive, and—God forbid—never show the opposite... So everyone sees that we are truly intelligent, capable, and resilient, able to survive and succeed under any conditions." (Mühldorf (on-line), December 2024).
Indeed, each Ukrainian abroad becomes an ambassador whose behavior and achievements influence how the world perceives Ukraine. Presenting themselves not as vulnerable refugees but as strong, competent Europeans counters Russian narratives and builds political and economic support.
CONCLUSION: BEYOND BINARY CHOICES
The findings reveal two interconnected paths of Ukrainian refugees: diaspora-building through long-term integration and transnational networks and return as an act of resilience. Both groups demonstrate agency in shaping Ukraine's postwar trajectory—whether through physical repatriation or sustained solidarity from abroad.
The decline in return intentions reflects harsh realities—ongoing war, instability, and successful integration abroad. Yet those who do return see it as more than just going home; it is an act of defiance, rebuilding Ukraine with their own hands. Meanwhile, Ukrainians establishing roots in Germany remain deeply engaged, supporting their homeland through remittances, advocacy, and cultural diplomacy. Both groups reject passive victimhood, instead asserting agency—returnees through reconstruction, the diaspora through global influence.
This study moves beyond simplistic "stay or return" narratives, showing how displaced Ukrainians navigate pragmatism and patriotism amid protracted crisis. Their collective efforts—whether rebuilding on the ground or maintaining international support—will prove crucial for Ukraine's recovery and European future.
REFERENCES
Adema, J., C. G. Aksoy, Y. Giesing, and P. Poutvaara. (2024) The Effect of Conflict on Ukrainian Refugees’ Return and Integration CESifo Working Paper No. 10877
Chargaziia, L., & Panchenko, T. (2025). Adaptation models of Ukrainian refugees in Germany. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 38(1), 193–219. https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.2025.2467220
Giesing, Y., Panchenko, T., & Poutvaara, P. (2022). Anpassung und Integrationsstrategien von Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine in Deutschland. ifo Forschungsberichte, 135.
UNHCR (2025). “Ukraine Refugee Situation.” The UN Refugee Agency.
